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Event : T-Fire, the smart watch of the company's customer Tuman Technology, has been shipping in volume on 12/22. The shipment originated from 9/5, Tuman pre-sales through WeChat circle of friends, 11 hours pre-sale Sold 18,700 Turman smart watches, until the company stopped pre-sale on 9/6, the booking volume reached a record of 73,700, becoming the fastest selling smart watch in the world, from T-Fire hot to bulk shipment , we have the following points:
Turman mode will accelerate the market promotion of smart watches and consolidate Beijing Junzheng's wearable leading position
Compared with other smart watch suppliers, the unnamed Tuman can win the pre-sales results without a product launch:
1) Model innovation of “social network + direct salesâ€.
T-Fire is the first direct sales model recommended by friends. This model is similar to Xiaomi Technology's “Star (Lei Jun) + Direct Selling†model. In the mobile Internet era, the efficiency is much higher than the traditional channel sales model;
2) Junzheng low-power AP chip provides a solid foundation for T-Fire high availability:
Based on the company's JZ4775 and T-Fire's low-power screen, T-Fire has a 7-day standby time far beyond that of its competitors. Considering that Junzheng will push the JZ4775 improved version in 14 years, the power consumption will drop by at least 30 again. %.
Therefore, we reiterated the point that since the first market launch in May, the four reports repeatedly emphasized that Beijing Jun is in the world of leading wearable AP low-power, and this advantage can be maintained until at least 14 years in August;
3) T-Fire's high price will consolidate the company's wearable leader position, T-Fire pre-sales 499 yuan, open sales 699 yuan, far below the competitor's price range of 1000 to 2500 yuan.
The pricing strategy under this Internet thinking is similar to Xiaomi Technology, which will greatly attract consumers' willingness to try new wearable products, and will also drive more smart watch manufacturers to join similar direct sales models, so that the spread of wearable products will be greatly accelerated. In this rapid popularization process, Junzheng AP is likely to become the de facto standard for watch APs and consolidate its position as a wearable leader.
The company's business flexibility is huge, and the future space is expected. The chip design (IC Fabless) industry has one or two successful products that are likely to bring dozens of times performance contribution characteristics. Under the pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic assumptions, we made a company's earnings forecast and found that even under pessimistic conditions, the performance will grow by 2.94 times in the next three years. Under optimistic conditions, the performance in the next three years is expected to reach an astonishing 13.75. Times.
Earnings forecast : In accordance with the principle of prudence, under the pessimistic assumptions, we expect revenues from 2009 to 2015 to be RMB 92 million, 167 million, and 468 million, respectively, to increase to -14.2%, 82.0%, and 180.7%, and EPS to be 0.32 yuan, respectively. 0.54 yuan, 0.94 yuan, because the company holds a large amount of cash for a long time without liabilities, after deducting cash, PE is 84x, 50x, 29x. Maintain a “Buy†rating.
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