Home appliance industry enters the winter collectively, analysts say demand due to property market regulation

The "cold winter" of household appliances that have long been stunned has been confirmed in the data of the mid-year financial reports of major home appliance companies last month. In the first half of this year, the total operating revenue of the 57 listed companies in the home appliance industry was 259.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.12%.

The international financial crisis has not dissipated yet. The regulation and control of the property market continues. Stimulus policies have been gradually withdrawn, and market demand has begun to slump. Where is China's home appliance industry?

First, the troubles of the compressor manufacturers in the past two months, coincided with the sales season of air conditioners and refrigerators. However, Mr. Huang, the general manager of Shenzhen Longgang District Shenzhen Yuanhong Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd., who is the accessory of these two types of household appliances, is not happy.

On the 23rd, he said: "At present, domestic brands of air-conditioning inventory are very high, conservative estimates of the total inventory of at least 10 million or more, in this case, the orders from the appliance brand significantly reduced this year."

The statistics from Ovid Consulting confirmed Mr. Huang’s estimate that after the end of August this year, domestic air-conditioning inventory was 14 million units, which was the second highest in history, second only to 16 million units in the same period last year. According to the calculation of 50 million domestic air conditioner sales from September last year to August of this year, inventory accounted for a quarter.

"This year, in contact with major brands, I discovered that either they have promised delays or they have requested to talk about prices once a month, and they will not cooperate without lowering prices," said Mr. Huang. “At this time in the past, workshop technicians were very scarce, but there was absolutely no pressure for recruitment this year.”

“Now the entire home appliance industry is in the winter. As an upstream supplier, we can only expect the home appliance market to pick up quickly and drive our upstream orders and revenues,” said Mr. Huang.

How cold is this winter?

As early as July of this year, China Industrial Competitive Intelligence Network disclosed the "White Home Appliances Project Feasibility Study Report" that the household electrical appliance industry experienced a sharp drop in sales last year and it still suffered from losses and losses in the first half of this year.

Correspondingly, the output of main products of major brands also declined. According to data previously reported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to June this year, although the cumulative industrial output value of the household appliance industry in China increased by 9.7% year-on-year, the increase rate dropped sharply.

The performance forecast of major home appliance brands in the first half of this year indicated that sales of white goods, mainly refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, had the most significant decline. Taking Midea as an example, its performance forecast for the first half of 2012 released on the evening of July 8 showed that following the first quarter's 41.68% year-on-year decrease in operating income, the US home appliance air conditioner output and domestic sales volume were 1190 in May this year. Million units and 5.78 million units were down 24% and 18% respectively year-on-year.

Among dozens of well-known local home appliance brands in the country, in addition to Gree's substantial growth in sales, a number of home appliance brands including Haier have performed at a low level, and many small home appliance brands such as Jiuyang and Supor have suffered losses.

"It has been quite good to look at the entire industry." The person in charge of the United States said.

According to the latest statistics from Ovid Consulting, from January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic refrigerator industry fell by 12% year-on-year, and its sales decreased by 7% year-on-year; both sales and sales of washing machines were negative growth; air conditioner sales volume fell the most. The year-on-year decline exceeds 20%.

Statistics from the industry online show that the growth rate of household electrical appliance inventories has increased. As of the end of the second quarter, the household electrical appliance industry's total finished product funds were 81.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. The slowdown in production growth in the home appliance industry has directly led to a reduction in the demand for labor. As of the end of the second quarter, the total number of employees in the household appliance industry was 1,837,000, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

Third, the reasons 1, the property market regulation cut off the demand for home appliances market "home appliance industry 'winter' source is actually still from the real estate market." Brilliant Chief Analyst Li Wenjiang believes that "real estate regulation, home appliances industry suffered, this is very early There is a consensus in the industry. Imagine that there are not so many new real estate transactions, and there is a demand for home appliances."

Lu Jiebo, deputy director of the Research Institute of Market Economy at the State Council Development Research Center, also stated: “Since October 2010, starting from the purchase of most provincial capital cities and the property market entering the winter, the home appliance industry will have a sign of falling sales. show."

The reason why it appears today as a "collective show" is that, in his view, it is mainly due to the continued support of subsidy policies such as "home appliances going to the countryside" and "replacement of old ones." He said: "It is now in the exit period of these policies. Under such circumstances, the sales decline of the home appliance industry is entirely predictable."

2, the proliferation of high inventory capacity and lay down the root causes "Another major source as early as after the global financial crisis in 2008, it has been buried." Renmin Qi, a researcher in the home appliance industry investment adviser said that at that time, major home appliances companies to use the national 4 trillion investment Plan to carry out large-scale capacity expansion. For example, Midea invests in variable frequency air conditioners in Ningbo, Nansha, and Jingzhou; Haier invests in energy-saving refrigerators and inverter air conditioners in Foshan, Shenyang, and Qingdao; and Changhong and Meiling invested RMB 1.2 billion in early 2011 to build the three major projects that were fully operational in June this year. “Everyone wants to use policies to help them expand their production capacity to occupy the market. Until now, they have excess capacity and the market is difficult to digest. The days of home appliance brand owners will be better.”

According to statistics from the industry-renowned online business intelligence website, taking the refrigerator as an example, by the end of 2010, the annual production capacity of refrigerators in China had exceeded 100 million units, but the refrigerators sold last year were only 45 million units; the total sales volume of China's air conditioners was approximately 100 million units. However, the actual production capacity exceeds 150 million units.

"In addition, there are financial crises that have caused the export market to be sluggish, and various factors have been superimposed. The home appliance industry eventually broke out in the form of a decline in overall sales of the industry," said Ren Min-chi.

“In the past few years, the growth rate of GDP was obvious. The expansion of the household appliance market was also fast and the channels were unobstructed. Now that sales are weak, inventory is inevitable.” Lu Lanlie, senior vice president of Galanz, frankly said in an interview with the media.

4. Pathfinder products have turned to high-end products, and channels have extended into rural areas.

At present, the sales problem facing the Chinese home appliance industry is how to solve it.

“How to open up new areas and find new profit growth points has become a major problem for major home appliance brands.” The relevant person in charge of Midea’s electrical appliances stated that Midea’s choice is to use technology advantages to fully develop and launch new products and to seize high-end users. market. "We have just launched the 9 series of 24 full DC inverter air conditioners based on this consideration, through energy conservation, environmental protection and high technology, access to high-end consumer recognition." He introduced, then, the United States will also be its product market A series of planning and development powers such as promotion and marketing are delegated to the general distributors.

"As with most home appliance brands, previously, Midea developed its brand promotion and sales strategy from its headquarters and distributors implemented it in grades, but in order to further increase the enthusiasm of distributors, this model has to be changed." Chongqing Midea Refrigeration Products Sales Limited Zhao Guilin, general manager of the company introduced.

Lu edge wave analysis, the United States decentralization to dealers, on the one hand to mobilize the enthusiasm of dealers, to cultivate their brand loyalty, on the other hand also originated from the chill of the entire appliance industry unabated, allowing dealers to further participate in the management of the United States, The power of the distributor apportions the sales pressure from the terminal.

Also in the field of products is to find breakthroughs Gree. "If Gree wants to reach 200 billion yuan in revenue in 2015, relying on central air-conditioning, central air-conditioning will make greater contribution to Gree's revenue and profits in the future," said Jiang Jincheng, minister of Chongqing Gree's marketing department. In fact, from the beginning of last year, Gree has consciously adjusted its product direction and made central air-conditioning the main profit point for the Group in the future. In the first half of this year, the data released by the home appliance industry magazine “HVAC Information” showed that Gree Central Air-conditioning has become the “new champion” of central air-conditioning in China with a market share of over 14%.

Unlike the U.S. and Gree, who make a fuss about their products, Skyworth is seeking breakthroughs in the channel.

“From this month, Skyworth will sink through the channels and launch the 3rd and 4th markets.” The person in charge of Skyworth Electric said, “Before Skyworth once launched a cloud TV storm in the first and second-tier cities in China. The promotion activities drive product sales, but based on the current sales situation, Skyworth decided to carry out this activity in the 3rd and 4th markets to further seize the rural market.”

“In the current home appliance market environment, there will be more and more home appliance brand companies through the expansion of product areas and channels to achieve overall sales and profit improvement, stick to the day or two of the primary and secondary markets and mainstream home appliances. Go no more." Lu Renbo frankly.