Analysts say policy will be positive for the appliance industry in the second half of the year

With the introduction of a series of favorable policies such as the national energy subsidies, the home appliance market has also become a major concern in the industry. Relevant experts predict that the impact of the energy-saving subsidies policy on June is limited, and it is expected that the effect of subsidies will appear in August and September. In the third quarter, household electrical appliance shipments may have positive growth in single digits.

According to the latest data, the retail sales of domestic appliances fell by 20%-30% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and decreased by about 15% in the second quarter. The harsh winter of the home appliance market has not passed.

The head of the production department of a domestic color TV company disclosed: “At present, color TV companies are a low-profit industry. The average net profit of local color TV companies is only about 2%, at most 3%, and the panel generally accounts for about 70% of the total cost. The panel and labor costs have increased substantially, which means that the average profit of TV companies has dropped sharply by half.

Guo Nian Securities analyst Wang Nianchun said: "Comprehensive feedback from various companies and third-party data point of view, this year in June, the appliance industry's shipments did not increase significantly, the industry as a single digit negative growth. But now is at the bottom of the The difference in the third quarter will not be worse."

After the introduction of the energy-saving subsidy policy, home appliance sales channels tend to digest low-efficiency products first. The reporter recently discovered when visiting a home appliance store, the current store is still in the main push three energy-efficient air-conditioning and some are not in line with energy-efficient subsidies such as refrigerators, washing machines and other products.

In the interview, many consumers expressed that they did not know much about energy-saving subsidies, and some people thought that the price of energy-saving appliances was expensive, which made them hard to accept. For example, an energy-saving air-conditioning energy efficiency class 2 price is 3,600 yuan, after deducting energy-saving subsidies 180 yuan price is 3420 yuan; did not participate in energy-saving subsidies air-conditioning price 3,400 yuan, discounted after 3,000 yuan, to participate in energy-saving subsidies The product is 420 yuan more expensive.

Experts said that from a single product point of view, the energy subsidy is not as good as subsidies for home appliances to the countryside, but home appliances to the countryside for more than four years subsidy of 62.62 billion yuan, this time it is a one-year subsidy of 26.5 billion yuan, a larger one-year quota It is expected that the effect of policy implementation on the demand for terminals will gradually be seen in July.

It is estimated that the new energy-saving policy is expected to boost the sales of home appliances by 100 billion yuan this year. However, given that the previous stimulus policies have certain overdrafts in the rural areas and the demand for urban renewal in the household appliance industry, the incremental effect of this energy-saving subsidy on the demand for the industry is greater than before. Decline in policy, household electrical appliance industry category to return to the 2010 30% -40% high probability of growth is very small.

Taking into account the favorable policies such as energy-saving subsidies, the final bus effect of home appliances to the countryside, the recovery of residential sales, and the lower base number in the second half of the year, the demand for home appliance industry in the second half of the year will recover.

Wang Nianchun believes that the complete machine manufacturers will cooperate with the energy-saving subsidy policy and focus on the introduction of new home appliances. In conjunction with the targeted promotions of home appliance retailers, household appliances consumption will be further expanded. CICC expects that sales of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, and color TVs will increase by 2%, 7%, 5%, and 8%, respectively, from May to December this year. In the first five months of the year, sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs fell 6.2%, 6.6%, and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively. Only washing machine sales rose by 2.2% year-on-year.