LED lighting is expected to enter the explosive stage

According to analysis by industry insiders, LED light sources could fall to US$15 per thousand lumens by the beginning of 2014, and the price of light sources for some of the most aggressive lighting manufacturers in the Asia Pacific region will fall to US$8 per 1,000 lumens. In about two to three years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to the critical replacement point for large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps (US$5).

It is understood that the current Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition will increase by 5,000 square meters on the basis of last year, reaching 220,000 square meters, but the number of exhibitors in 2,600 will be slightly lower than last year. The exhibition is seen by the industry as a barometer of the world lighting and LED industry. The signals revealed in the past two years show that the LED industry is gradually returning to rationality under the trend of industrial transformation and polarization and polarization.

LED lighting was once considered as a sunrise industry with unlimited prospects. However, the blind expansion of production capacity made the industry temporarily enter the winter. An interview with the reporter at the 18th Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition found that the issue of excess LED capacity still exists, and the end product price of lighting products is fierce.

However, a report released by the Guangdong Guangya Lighting Research Institute shows that since the beginning of this year, the demand for LED backlight and lighting market is gradually turning strong, and chip, package and application vendors have full orders. Some entrepreneurs and industry analysts believe that LED lighting is expected to enter the explosive development stage in the fourth quarter of this year, and will even usher in a boom period of seven to eight years.

LED market is approaching

The “Semiconductor Lighting Industry Energy Conservation Plan” issued jointly by six ministries and commissions in February this year pointed out that by 2020, the global lighting market will exceed US$150 billion, and the LED lighting market is expected to reach US$75 billion, accounting for 50% of the global lighting market share.

Among them, LED lighting market share is expected to expand 15 times compared with about 5 billion US dollars in 2010. In addition, according to data from the Taiwan Topology Industry Research Institute, the penetration rate of global LED lighting is currently only 10%, and the development potential is huge. Guangdong Provincial Lighting Association President Jian Quan believes that with the continuous improvement of industry technology and the rapid decline in prices, LED lighting products can be rapidly expanded.

Dr. Pan Wenbo, the founder of Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition and the director of Guangzhou Guangya Messe Frankfurt Co., Ltd., stated that in 2013, the LED lighting industry output increased significantly compared to the second quarter of last year, and the market growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be even greater. In the next 7-8 years, it is estimated that 70% of lighting products will be replaced with LED products, and the LED lighting market will usher in a period of golden growth.

Vicious price warfare concerns

As a result of excess capacity at the low end, the vicious price war is fierce. According to exhibitors at the Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition, LED lighting is now at risk of “retaking the old path of vicious competition for energy-saving lamps”. "In a wholesale market in Zhongshan, the various components of LED products have been standardized.

Some small factories hire a few people, buy various low-end components and go back to produce LED products, and the price is very low. For example, if a 3-watt LED bulb is purchased at wholesale price, the cost will be around 7 yuan, while the market can sell at least 15 yuan. ”

Pan Wenbo said that many LED companies now maliciously reduce the price of LED products in order to grab market share. you get what you pay for. Under vicious competition, the quality of low-priced products is also poor, which in turn leads to dissatisfaction with consumers, thus making LED lighting products more difficult to popularize and creating a vicious cycle.

Pan Wenbo analyzed that, like other industries, the rapid development of LED lighting will certainly be the process of survival of the fittest. According to the law of basic industrial development, there will be a 30%-50% or even 70% elimination rate. Companies that have the advantages of brands, technology, channels, and innovation in the future will occupy more market share than they do.

However, Pan Wenbo also expressed his worries that “the threshold of LED lighting industry is low, the government has high subsidies and preferential tax policies, resulting in a large number of enterprises squeezed in, the situation of low-end excess production capacity is more serious.”