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Recently, 12 related listed companies released third-quarter performance forecasts, which showed a sharp increase year-on-year. The performance of many leading listed companies surged. Among them, Foshan Lighting, one of the domestic lighting leaders, experienced a surge of 281.4% in the first three quarters, reaching 280 million. Leading Liard and Zhouming Technology's net profit for the first three quarters increased by 50%~70% and 31%~41% respectively; the leading company of the packaging company, Mulinsen, revised the previous three quarters performance forecast from 192 million to 212 million. To 280 million to 325 million, an increase of 14% to 30% year-on-year; one of the leading LED chips, Huacan Optoelectronics, the first three quarters of net profit surged 12 times to 120 million to 148 million.
In addition, in the LED industry, the release of the first three quarters of performance forecast, net profit increased significantly year-on-year, Alto Electronics increased by 261% ~ 309%, Lianjian Optoelectronics increased by 50% ~ 70%, Abbyson increased by 16% ~21%, Lehman shares increased by 25%~45%, Jufei Optoelectronics increased by 35%~65%, Dongshan Precision surged by 180%~220%, and Ruifeng Optoelectronics increased by 65%~85%.
comment:Such a large number of led companies' performance forecast surged year-on-year, clearly verifying that the overall profitability of the led industry has been greatly improved, the overall industry supply and demand pattern is undergoing fundamental changes, reaffirming that the led industry has great opportunities.
We reiterate that the LED industry has great opportunities. Led upstream chip end: After 15 years of shuffling, the backward chip production capacity has been phased out. At the beginning of the year, Jingdian has shut down 25% of its production capacity. Samsung has also cut production several times. At the same time, domestic government subsidies began to shrink significantly in 16 years, and domestic new supply expansion has increased significantly. Decline, so this year, the price of some products of the chip has exceeded 15%; the downstream domestic ban will increase the demand for LED lighting by 60%, the small-growth led year will increase by 28%, and the supply and demand gap will reach 50%. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall led industry supply and demand structure has been reversed and improved, and the secondary market has low attention and large expectations.
Led chip end: leading enterprises continue to be fully productive, the off-season in the fourth quarter is not weak, orders have been placed at the end of the fourth quarter, it is expected that some product prices will still be raised, the performance is bound to exceed expectations.
We have been paying close attention to industry-level exchanges in the near future. Lead chip chips such as Sanan, Huacan, and Aoyang have been fully produced or basically close to full production. Some enterprises have been producing since June. Jingyuan Optoelectronics also said that due to the demand for quaternary LED, led backlight, security monitoring, smart phone flash, car products, etc., it has already been fully produced since the end of the second quarter.
At present, the supply and demand structure of the LED chip is tight, and it is expected to last for 1-2 years. The main reason is that after 15 years of reshuffle, the backward chip production capacity has been phased out. At the beginning of the year, Jingdian shut down 25% of production capacity, Samsung also announced a reduction in production, while domestic MOCVD The gradual withdrawal of subsidies has also greatly reduced the disorderly expansion of domestic LED chip production capacity.
Therefore, the supply and demand structure at the beginning of 2016 has been flat, so the price of led chips has stabilized at the beginning of the year. And because the leading companies such as Mulinsen and Guoxing Optoelectronics have continued to expand significantly in the second quarter. Among them, Mulinsen's 2.3 billion raised funds were put in place for the expansion of three packaging projects, and the expected expansion rate was 44.5%. After the expansion, the output exceeded 35,000 KK/month. Guoxing Optoelectronics announced on October 11 that it was the third time in the past 12 months. Expansion is expected to increase production by more than 20%. Therefore, industry insiders said that the demand growth rate of the chip end is expected to exceed 20%.
Led lighting and small spacing demand is strong, leading lighting company Foshan lighting performance surged 281.4%, small pitch leading Liard performance increased by more than 50%.
Reflecting the demand for downstream led applications is extremely strong and will continue for the next 3 to 5 years.
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