You may be the one who will be replaced by AI in Buffett's mouth.

(Original title: You! Perhaps the same group of people who will be replaced by AI in Buffett's mouth)

Field wheat

The annual Buffett Shareholders' Meeting is a pilgrimage for the investment community. In this unpredictable world, it is both a glory and a belief to sing with the most profitable people in the world. The followers of the chasing wealth are just like reading the rumors in the Bible. Every word in Buffett's words is repeated, and every paragraph of the media is also scrutinizing it.

Although Warren Buffett has always been not very fond of technology, but this general meeting of shareholders, he predicts that the AI ​​will trigger a massive wave of layoffs, or has caused a wide range of multimedia interpretation. Of course, before Buffett, Kevin Kelly made bolder predictions. He believes that at the end of this world, more than 70% of the occupations that people are engaged in today will be replaced by AI.

Many of us have not lived until the end of this century, but the job has been replaced by artificial intelligence but it has begun to appear in some areas. In the Internet era of PC+network cable, it took nearly 40 years for the global network to be connected. Mobile +3G, 4G, and WIFI mobile networks have allowed people to access the Internet anywhere and anytime for nearly 10 years. Artificial intelligence began to compete with humans for jobs but only occurred at 5 During the year. In the face of a futuristic world in which man and machine coexist, every ordinary person who is being revolutionized may have to start redefining himself.

AI Evolution Apocalypse

I believe we all have personal experience and many science fiction scenes are gradually becoming a reality. After mechanization, the software industry, hardware products with computing master chips and driver software, cloud computing, and big data coming in recent years have matured, artificial intelligence is coming to the forefront.

Why do we need artificial intelligence? This aspect involves both the needs of human races for high-end tools and the original motives of commercial society chaebols to create differentiated competitive advantages. In the military field, the trend of unmanned weapons represented by the one-piece UAV is being widely involved in actual combat. The Russian unmanned combat vehicle unit also created a new era of AI combat in Syrian city street fighting this year. The interactive and scene-applied artificial intelligence products are such that the former home PCs and smart phones will redefine a consumer market in a new era, bringing about new industrial revolutions and business opportunities.

The core of AI is still the intelligent application based on current computing power. In the era of traditional servers, AI was limited to a limited number of industrial applications, automated production of a single high-precision manufacturing and manufacturing company, and other fields. The AI ​​of this period performed a fixed program and repeated mechanized actions to replace the high-precision, high-intensity, and repetitive physical work that humans could not perform.

In the era of cloud computing, with the revolutionary improvement of computing power and storage capacity, the emergence of big data and cloud self-learning systems has given AI a wide range of applications. Intelligentization has begun to enter the commercial consumer field. Driven by the concepts of the Internet of Things and smart cities, the chip processing capabilities, networking methods, voice, video, infrared, and radio frequency in the hardware devices have achieved rapid development. Driven by cloud platforms, cloud services, and self-learning capabilities, machine-to-person communication becomes possible. Smart homes based on voice interactions have been substantially pioneered by leading companies such as Amazon in big data and cloud services.

At this stage, AI will gradually replace most of the basic services that humans are no longer willing to engage in. It extends intelligent, interactive, intelligent, and automated hardware services to homes, automobiles, offices, and urban functional services. In the cost and consumer market considerations. The wide application of AI in human life and the continuous growth of the global population will inevitably lead to the contradiction between man and machine.

In the coming era of quantum computing, artificial intelligence will no longer depend on large-scale server clusters, and the miniaturization and mobilization of artificial intelligence will become practical. The fast real-time processing capabilities of the AI ​​front-end system will greatly increase the degree of artificial intelligence. The mature AI world of quantum computing will be a world in which humans and humanoid robots coexist. Humanoid machines will be given a certain amount of thinking ability, can engage in the vast majority of human daily work, walk in the forefront of human civilization conflicts, and become a symbol of family wealth. The highly anthropomorphic AI will also lead to deep social ethical issues.

The iteration of AI will not stop at quantum, and the challenge we face has already arrived in the era of cloud computing.

You may already be on the way to being eliminated by AI

No one has ever thought that the grassroots employees in the banking industry will be the first target of AI development. Last year, the number of layoffs in only four major banks exceeded 60,000. With various small and medium-sized banks and credit unions, the estimated number of layoffs by the banking industry in 2016 was more than 100,000.

The banking industry has always been the industry with the highest investment in IT technology and intelligence. The perfect industry-wide IT system platform construction, public data protocol interaction, and strict regulatory measures have provided the best soil for the application of new technologies. Internet finance and mobile payment have promoted the large-scale growth of out-of-the-box transactions, allowing mass financial services to begin to shed their reliance on bank outlets.

The Smart Teller Machine at the bank outlets can replace more than 80% of the workforce's work. In terms of the risk control of financial services, mobile smart terminals and home smart terminals, as well as video, audio, and behavioral record sensors that are widely available in smart cities, continue to provide a true stream of personal data. AI is relying on big data to help the financial industry more accurately locate the customer's credit information, automate the process, and maximize help to avoid bad debts.

According to the statistics of the Banking Industry Association, in 2016, the number of banking financial institutions from the counters reached 177.714 million transactions, an increase of 63.68% year-on-year, and the amount of transactions from counters amounted to 1522.54 trillion yuan. The average out-of-the-box rate of the industry reached 84.31%, of which the Minsheng Bank was The cabinet business rate has reached an astonishing 99.27%.

According to statistics from banking regulators, there are approximately 3.8 million bank employees in China, and about 80% of them are bank tellers. The vast majority of these 2.6 million bank tellers will enter high-risk practitioners in the next 10 years, and at least 300,000 will be deducted in the next three years, facing the risk of being replaced by AI.

The investment managers with aura are also in the shadow of the rapidly growing AI. Artificial intelligence is a master of the game, and it can be played without emotion and without restraint, and the financial market has always been the most game. In recent years, the performance of smart investment advice has generally outperformed actively managed asset management companies such as hedge funds.

Compared with investment banking/PE/VC practitioners, AI has demonstrated comprehensive advantages in quickly absorbing and analyzing information, deep learning, overcoming the weaknesses and blind spots in human emotional thinking, and providing personalized services and rapid systemization. In order to increase competitiveness, international investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, are investing more in AI and deep learning. The rapid increase in the proportion of AI applications also means the departure of a group of traditional investment banks/PE/VC practitioners.

Compared with the landscape of the financial industry, manufacturing plants struggling on the subsistence line have also been forced to start large-scale "machine substitution" plans. A manipulator is the labor efficiency of four production line workers. Not only does the yield rate increase substantially, but the cost can be recovered in half a year. There is no need for food and accommodation, no social insurance, no labor and personnel management, according to the size of the order can be organized at any time to match the corresponding capacity, post-maintenance costs are much lower than the manual. At the more critical time, the robots can work 24 hours a day without paying overtime.

Under the background of ensuring employment and maintaining stability, Guangdong and Zhejiang Provinces, two major processing and manufacturing provinces, have also had to implement the “machine substitution” plan on a large scale. Among them, Zhejiang Province will complete 500 billion yuan of machine substitutions by 2018. "Investment. After the post-90s, China's unique group of migrant workers will gradually withdraw from the stage of history. Under the ravages of AI, how to provide youthful opportunities for young people in third-tier, fourth-tier cities and rural areas to provide massive job opportunities will be a new and serious proposition.

Not only financial and processing manufacturing, but also traditional high-paying, knowledge-based work will face crisis in the near future will face the replacement of AI. In more and more scenarios, AI will be able to replace many intellectual jobs, including programmers, lawyers, librarians, journalists, and even broadcasters.

The future of military applications will be the world leader in AI. The central neuron system of the satellites, skynet, early warning, intelligence, and cross-platform command systems will carry the unmanned model of local warfare. The warfare unit consisting of drones, drones A, machine warriors, and automated logistical transportation management systems will become the first choice for war initiation. Science fiction films will not enter the reality for more than 10 years.

Quantum computing has entered the field of vision. China has stood at the commanding heights of global science and technology since the flourishing of Tang and Song Dynasty. Under the impetus of competition in the military and commercial society, a new wave of AI development will take the lead from our global perspective. How AI coexists, how to redefine oneself is worth thinking about every industry and working group that will be changed.

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