Lithium battery star metal cobalt prices plummeted, falling by nearly 4% a day

[Lithium battery star metal cobalt prices plummeted, falling nearly 4% a day] the market price dropped by nearly four points a day, traders purchase is not active, the industry listed company's stock price has been overcast by 30% ... for the two years of hot In the case of cobalt metal, this situation is still rare.

Cobalt and cattle fell nearly 4% a day

After 51, the price of cobalt metal plummeted and brushed the circle of friends in the industry.

According to the business community monitoring data, on May 4th, the cobalt metal market quotations fell by 3.64% on one day, the biggest one-day drop since 2017. On the same day, the domestic metal cobalt market averaged 617,500 yuan/ton, which fell by 23,000 yuan/ton in one day. The ex-factory price of the major domestic manufacturers plummeted. The average factory price per day fell by 40,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 6.06%.

"Cobalt prices began to fluctuate in April 2018 after skyrocketing for more than a year, and they began to decline in early May." Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Club, said that at the beginning of July 2016, the domestic market price of cobalt metal was only It was 194,100 yuan per ton, and it began to oscillate upwards. At the beginning of April 2018, the cobalt metal market price had exceeded RMB 664,000/t, but since then it has begun to decline, and now it is about 8% in one month.

“After the plunge on May 4th, the domestic price of electrolytic cobalt fell below 600,000/ton on the 7th, and Jinchuan Cobalt trader’s price was quoting between 580,590 yuan/ton. However, the market situation improved in the afternoon and Jinchuan’s cobalt price was raised to 60. Ten thousand yuan / ton. On the 8th, the price of cobalt has picked up again. Traders' latest offer this morning is Jinchuan Cobalt 600,000, and the market price is 10,000 more."

CBC non-ferrous net analyst Pan Chao told reporters that this round of cobalt prices has been dropping closer to the beginning of the year. After years of rising bubbles, all were squeezed out. Today's market transactions gradually improved, and downstream buyers began to start.

The trend of cobalt metal market prices has a significant impact on the share prices of related industries.

At the beginning of 2018, due to the soaring price of cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, which had a strong pull up to 213.91 yuan per share, closed down to 150.5 yuan per share on the morning of the 8th. It fell nearly 30% in two months.

Downstream purchases are not positive

The rise of the new energy auto industry and the market's recognition of the scarcity of cobalt have become a direct factor in the soaring prices of cobalt metal in the past two years.

Now that the incentive to support cobalt's high prices has not been changed, what are the reasons for the current decline in cobalt prices?

“In fact, the current demand for cobalt metal downstream has not experienced the expected surge, the market supply is relatively sufficient, so there is no incentive for the price increase.” Pan Chao said that from the perspective of feedback from the downstream market, due to new energy vehicle subsidies Gradually canceled, combined with the market has not yet formed, so manufacturers have less incentive to produce than before, so the demand is less than expected. At the same time, apart from the supply and demand factors that currently determine the cobalt metal price trend, market speculation funds also accounted for the bulk. Recent international economic and trade relations have become tense. Therefore, some speculative funds have also evacuated, causing the price of cobalt to fall back.

Bai Jiaxin also said that from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the recent demand for cobalt is less than expected, but the supply continues to increase. This phenomenon caused the price of cobalt to fluctuate and fluctuate.

Affected by the macro economy, the production of new energy vehicles is expected to decrease, and the demand for metal cobalt is eagerly reduced, which to a certain extent eases the gap in supply and demand.

At the same time, the production and sales of domestic mobile phones in the first quarter were less than expected, and the US investigation of my mobile phone manufacturers had affected the production and sales volume of domestic mobile phones, and also had a negative impact on cobalt demand.

The trade war between China and the United States has been heating up this year. As one of the focus products for new energy vehicles, the market is expected to decline. Cobalt prices began to release the high price risk in the first quarter. In the spot market, the cobalt price shocks adjusted, causing speculators to panic, hot money divestment, and the pressure from selling cobalt by the cobalt-cobalt dealers increased. Traders’ bullish psychological confidence is insufficient, and the market is difficult to digest stockpiles of cobalt in the short term, resulting in a sharp increase in cobalt prices in the short term. Fell.

Going down or not much

The drop in the high price of cobalt still does not affect the enthusiasm of the upstream and downstream industries.

Since 2017, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, Pengxin Resources, and China Resources have all made significant efforts to purchase and mine cobalt mines. Among the downstream companies, Apple was exposed to direct negotiations with the mining company and signed a long-term purchase agreement to supply thousands of tons of cobalt within five years. Volkswagen, BMW, Tesla and other international car companies also reported that they had negotiated purchase agreements with suppliers of cobalt raw materials. The battle for cobalt resources is continuing.

“Cobalt prices are inevitably affected by market or multi-factors in the short term, but their long-term demand increase and scarcity are still concerned.” Pan Chao said that in 2017 the cobalt content of the battery industry exceeded 50%, and now the downstream of cobalt is mainly 3C batteries and New energy vehicle power battery. Nowadays, 3C batteries have grown steadily, and power batteries have seen explosive growth. In 2020, the production of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2 million vehicles. By 2020, the battery energy density of new energy vehicles will reach 300 Wh/kg. This goal will not change. He believes that the downstream demand for cobalt lithium will continue to flourish, and cobalt prices still have room for growth. Although the overall purchase volume is still small, but from the beginning of yesterday, cobalt downstream procurement has been warmer. It is expected that the cobalt metal price will bottom out at 550,000/ton, and this time after the price shock is over, it will usher in a new round of rise.

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