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On June 11, 2018, Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ("Ningde Times") officially landed on the GEM of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Just listed, the Ningde era achieved a daily limit of up to 44%, the amount of the seal exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the market value reached 78.64 billion yuan.
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The largest IPO of the GEM, the world's largest shipment of power batteries, and the support of many star institutions... With multiple auras, it is not surprising that the Ningde era is listed on the daily limit. As a leading enterprise in the field of power battery in China, Ningde era has been reducing its price in exchange for a larger market share while landing the stock market to improve its financial strength.
Today, Samsung SDI, LG Chem and other Korean companies in China have entered the white list of China's power battery companies. With the entry of more internationally advantageous enterprises after the national subsidy policy has subsided, the reshuffle of China's power battery industry will accelerate. Except for the Ningde era and BYD, which have occupied half of the industry, other players will face death or be marginalized.
The stronger is stronger, the first echelon has opened the opponentIn 2017, the installed capacity of Ningde era reached 10.57GWh, a sharp increase of 57.24% year-on-year. In one fell swoop, BYD, the former “big boss†of the power battery industry, ranked first in China’s total installed capacity list. In addition, the Ningde era also defeated Panasonic and became the global power battery system sales champion.
At the same time, the average sales price of the company's power battery system in 2017 was 1.41 yuan / Wh, down 31.59% year-on-year, the price cuts were the highest in the past three years. The exchange of prices at the price has become an important strategy in the Ningde era before subsidies retreated.
By 2018, the Ningde era was still expanding. In the first quarter of this year, the company's power battery shipments reached 2.2GWh, and its share in the domestic market increased from 30% to 50%. In addition, the Ningde era also opened up the foreign market and entered the power battery supply system of the world's mainstream passenger car companies such as BMW, Volkswagen and Nissan.
In the second place, BYD achieved an installed capacity of 5.66GWh in 2017, a year-on-year decline of 26.21%. Previously, BYD's power battery has always adopted a development model of self-production. Due to the decline in sales of new energy vehicles last year, BYD, which has consistently ranked first in the power battery industry, was not only overtaken by the Ningde era last year, but was even further widened.
Compared with the shipment volume, the total installed capacity can best reflect the strength of the power battery company. Even with a sharp decline, BYD's installed capacity is still far beyond other rivals outside the Ningde era. In 2017, the total installed capacity of Watt Ma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and BAK ranked three to five were only 2.41GWh, 2.05GWh and 1.66GWh respectively. Ningde era and BYD have formed the first echelon of power batteries, and the opponent is far behind.
Seeing the short board that only supplies itself, in the first quarter of 2017, BYD decided to split the business of the power battery and began to deliver it. BYD expects that its power battery business will be split at the end of 2018 or early 2019, and will be listed independently from 2022 to 2023.
Recently, BYD has announced plans to build a new power battery factory in Qinghai. According to the plan, the products produced by the factory will be delivered to the outside in the future. With the increase in the delivery of BYD's power battery and the completion of the ternary lithium battery products, the market share of the two giants in BYD and Ningde era is expected to continue to expand.
According to the latest data from the Higher Industrial Research Institute (GGII), in April 2018, the total installed capacity of China's power battery was about 3.76GWh, a year-on-year increase of 304%. Among them, BYD's installed capacity is 1.34Gwh, accounting for 36%; Ningde's installed capacity is 1.27GWh, accounting for 34%; the third-ranked Guoxuan High-tech installed power is only 0.2GWh, accounting for 5.4%.
Waterma or has been "cool", industry reshuffle is in progressAs the country's demand for power battery energy density increases, the market share of the industry's head enterprises is increasing. The number of power battery-related enterprises in China has dropped from 150 in 2016 to less than 100 in 2017. Especially in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the number of production companies in 2017 has decreased by half compared with 2016.
"Although the reduction in the number is already a big adjustment in the outside world, this is only the beginning." Fang Jianhua, former president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and executive partner and president of the National Energy Achievements Transformation Fund New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Fund, believes The next elimination will be faster.
On March 25, 2018, the door of the Waterma headquarters, the third largest company in the power battery industry, was blocked by suppliers last year, demanding money, and the scene was chaotic. On April 1st, Wattma's parent company, Jenover, publicly acknowledged that the company had experienced overdue debts and overdue debts of 1.998 billion yuan. The company is facing debt repayment risks and has an impact on daily operations. As of March 31, the company's overall debt reached 22.138 billion yuan. In fact, in the WeChat circle of friends of the E-Car News, there is a supplier of Waterma to sell the batteries that have been paid for, so as to withdraw funds.
The root cause of Waterma's life and death is mainly due to its inadequate estimation of subsidy policies. The rapid growth of Wattma in the past few years is inseparable from the strong stimulation of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. The way to find subsidies has become the main "baton" of companies such as Waterma, rather than innovation-driven development.
In 2018, the state subsidy policy was adjusted, and Watmar appeared to be unacceptable. In the future, financial subsidies will completely fall, and the market demand for energy battery energy density and new energy vehicles will continue to increase.
At present, the capacity utilization rate of China's power battery companies is less than 30%. However, the low utilization rate of capacity does not mean that the development of the entire industry is delayed. In the BYD and Ningde era, the capacity utilization rate has reached more than 80%, and some of the top-ranking power battery companies have insufficient production capacity and began to expand production capacity. At the same time, many small and medium-sized enterprises are faced with a series of difficulties such as low product positioning, fierce price competition, high accounts receivable, and insufficient capacity utilization.
Overseas giants have entered the domestic market, and only two major local giants will survive in the future.In addition to the impact of domestic subsidies, the power battery industry has begun to face external challenges.
Just after the Ministry of Finance announced the reduction of import tariffs on complete vehicles and parts, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance jointly announced the white list of the automotive power battery and hydrogen fuel cell industry (the first batch), Samsung Ring New (Xi'an) Power Battery Co., Ltd., Nanjing Lejin Chemical New Energy Battery Co., Ltd., and Beijing Electronic Control Aisikai Technology Co., Ltd. are three Chinese and Korean joint ventures.
On April 26 this year, Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and chairman of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, publicly announced that the “Interim Measures for the White List of Automotive Power Battery and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Industry†(white list) will be officially implemented. . The white list has made clear requirements on the company, production conditions, technical capabilities, products, quality assurance capabilities, etc., and the acceptance is an irregular system, and it is ready to be accepted at any time.
Obviously, the whitelist released this time is more targeted than the previously published catalogue of "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions", which is more conducive to promoting the sustainable development of the battery industry.
China is the largest market for new energy vehicles, and the state is also very supportive of the development of new energy vehicles. With the successful joint venture of Samsung SDI, LG Chem, and SK's three Korean power battery joint ventures in China, I am afraid that other global power battery giants such as Panasonic will also be among the whitelists in the future.
By 2020, the Chinese government will release the protection of the domestic battery market. By then, China's power battery companies will face the impact of foreign competitors, industry reshuffle will be greatly accelerated.
Yiou Automobile expects that in addition to the Ningde era and BYD's two giants can rely on physical and technical strength to confront, other domestic power battery manufacturers may face death or marginalization, a large number of small and medium enterprises are likely to reorganize in the industry In the middle, the industry leader or the upstream and downstream enterprises trying to enter the industry.
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