LED lighting market estimate: massive growth in the future


Compared with existing incandescent, fluorescent, energy-saving, halogen and high-pressure sodium lamps, LED light sources have six distinct advantages, including: long life (up to 50,000 to 100,000 hours of service life, than traditional light source life) 10 times longer), energy saving (the same lighting effect is more than 80% energy saving than traditional light source), simple and convenient application, low cost of use, strong and environmentally friendly (no radiation, waste can be recycled, no mercury), which makes It has become a very attractive option in today's economic climate where energy conservation and environmental protection are concerned.

The US Department of Energy pointed out that the energy consumed by lighting accounts for 22% of the annual electricity generated in the United States. The widespread use of LED lighting will reduce this energy consumption by 50%. If this is considered objectively, by 2027, the annual energy reduction achieved by LED lighting will be equivalent to 500 million barrels of oil, while also reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Personally, in the long run, LED lighting will definitely dominate the world. In fact, LED lighting fixtures have been rapidly developed in the recent home lighting market. According to the 2008 survey by OSRAM Optical Semiconductor, the annual global sales of home lighting fixtures has reached 50 billion.

Some experts in the industry believe that the massive market and continuous and steady growth demand for LED green lighting will set off another super tsunami in the IC industry after the VCD, DVD, mobile phone and MP3. The market research company iSuppli also predicted that The LED lighting market will grow from $7 billion in 2009 to $9 billion in 2011. The ultra-high-brightness LED lighting market is the fastest growing segment of the market, which indicates the backlighting of large-screen LCDHDTVs in the next few years. The highway lighting, important road lighting, and construction site lighting markets will grow rapidly.

The technology of LED light source is becoming more and more mature, and the luminous lumen per watt is growing rapidly. The light output of high-power LED has achieved an important milestone of 100 lumens/watt. Some manufacturers even claim that the light output of its LED reaches 120 lumens/watt. . This means that in terms of energy efficiency, LEDs have now surpassed the energy-saving lamp CFL (its light output is 80 lumens per watt). According to experts, by 2012, the light output of LEDs will reach 150 lumens / watt.

The current price of LED is the main obstacle to its entry into the mass consumer market, but the cost of LED has recently fallen very fast. Take the 1W LED light source as an example. The price in the spring of 2008 was one-third of the price in the spring of 2006, and the spring of 2009 has dropped to a quarter in 2006. Polybrite, a leading supplier of LED lighting products, also said that in the past 12 months, the price of individual white LEDs has dropped from $8 to $1.50. It is predicted that in 2009, the replacement of incandescent bulbs with LEDs will be acceptable to consumers.

What they say is not empty. According to the author's understanding, the main reason for the high price of LEDs in the past is that most of their manufacturing patents are controlled by Japanese manufacturers, and they are not willing to license these manufacturing patents. As a result, there are only a handful of LED suppliers. However, the expiration date of these patents is this year. Once it fails, it is believed that China and Taiwan will soon emerge from countless LED manufacturers and further reduce the price of LEDs.

From an application point of view, LED lighting applications of less than 25W will gradually penetrate into portable handheld products (such as PMP and MID), reading table lamps, dining lamps, bedside lamps, sign lights, sign lights, decorative lights, grill lights, Automotive taillights, automotive low beam lights, car corner lights, and even car infotainment displays. The 25W-100W LED lighting application can be found in automotive headlamps, office lighting and Architectural Lighting applications. LED lighting applications above 100W will be widely used in large-screen LCD-TV, highways, large-scale TV walls and industrial lighting.

It must be pointed out that the design of LED lighting products must be such that the driver IC operates at 70-90% of the optimal working area of ​​the full load output. Driver ICs that use full-load output current can easily cause fatigue and early failure of LED lighting fixtures due to poor heat dissipation in the small space of the fixture.

In addition to thermal management challenges, the three design challenges that system designers will encounter are how to maintain more than 80% overall power conversion efficiency, flicker free dimming, and prevent LED color shift.

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