Demand is not weakening, wafer foundry capacity is still tight

After the inventory adjustment in the previous quarter and the Lunar New Year, the semiconductor inventory level has dropped to a healthy level, but the market demand has not slowed down. IC channel dealers pointed out that the current supply is not loose, although the short-term is not out of stock, but not short-term, but not short-term Some bulk items have been tightly supplied. If the new capacity of the fab is mostly opened in 2012, there will still be shortages in the next two seasons.

IC channel traders said that in the past few years, many fabs have been closed, but the foundry expansion has not been large, and there is not much capacity added. As the demand in the first quarter of 2010 returns to temperature, the supply chain suddenly becomes out of stock. The order is filled with wafer foundries, the production capacity is full, and the order has to wait for the first half of the year. Although there was no significant replenishment of inventory in 2011, the new capacity of the foundry was not much. In the fourth quarter of 2010, there was no oversupply situation. Although the distributors still have to get the goods, the supply is not loose. If the lunar new year's pulling power continues until the year, let the stock level drop to a lower level, it may lead to a new wave of replenishment.

The chip industry pointed out that from the perspective of demand, the global economy is still stable, especially in Asia, and the European and American regions are also flat. Overall, demand has not declined, and the entire semiconductor industry will maintain 5-10% in 2011. The extent of growth. Looking at several indicators, Intel (Intel) released its last quarter earnings report and was optimistic about the outlook, indicating that the PC market is not weak. In addition, TSMC's view in the first quarter is not weak, the current 12-inch capacity has exploded, and many customers line up and other production capacity, indicating that the semiconductor market performance is still strong.

However, the chip industry is also worried that the new capacity of foundry will not be opened until 2012. The increase in 2011 is limited. In addition, many IDMs have closed the factory, and the global supply has not increased significantly. It is said that the production capacity in the first quarter has been quite tight. If the trend continues, the chip factory will not be able to capture the capacity of the foundry first, then there will be a shortage of goods in the next two seasons.

The channel provider pointed out that the current upstream and downstream operators are more cautious about inventory management. Even if the supply is not loose, there is still no significant replenishment of the goods pulling action. Therefore, even if the shortage occurs, it should not be like 2010. So serious. In addition, even if the exchange rate affects semiconductors and OEM/ODM plants, the electronics factory successively screams for price increases. However, the average selling price (ASP) of the chips still maintains a downward trend as the supply and demand situation has not changed much.

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