Can the VR industry start to squeeze the bubble companies to survive this winter?

"I don't think any VR content company can make a profit within 3 years. This industry needs to go through a long period of development." Lan Ting digital COO Zhuang Jishun said in a recent interview with the media, also said a lot. The bitterness of VR practitioners. From the initial expectations of high, flocking to the current reshuffle adjustment, the overall cold, the VR industry is experiencing the first wave of winter since the rise. The bubbles caused by the excessive touting of capital and media in the early days will eventually be squeezed out in the big waves. The next article will talk about VR's past and present and future ways from the perspectives of investment, technology, content and the overall Internet environment. First look at the investment.

The above picture is from FellowDate, a database of FellowPlus. As can be seen from the figure, the investment in VR hardware ushered in a peak in 2015, but it dropped significantly in 2016. At the same time, investment in VR content increased significantly in 2016, even surpassing hardware. This shows that the wind direction of capital began to shift from hardware to content. In the investment community of “water and grass”, such data changes reflect the fact that the VR industry is declining. According to media reports, the ex-factory price of the second generation of VR BOX products of Shenzhen's head display manufacturers is 45 yuan, but by May, the price of a large number of imitation goods was 11 yuan, and the company could only adjust the ex-factory price to 18 yuan after May; In April, the hot-selling VR glasses case still has a profit of 10 yuan. By October, the profit has already dropped to 2 or even 1 hair.

No investor is willing to "los and lose money", VR hardware manufacturers have a big crocodile to block the road, after the cottage products for the stalk, the meager profits let many hardware manufacturers in this capital chase race suddenly exited. With this hardware, the development of the entire market is hard to be optimistic. In October of this year, Mido Entertainment, a VR content company that had released the Luhan VR concert, was exposed to arrears of wages. Among them, former employees (including some employees who have not yet resigned) were in arrears of wages of half a month to four months, making the relevant The employee filed a labor arbitration. Coincidentally, in April this year, AlfaReal AR, the first product of AlfaReal AR, was released, and it was also exposed that there was arrears in employee salaries. Liu Yun, founder of VRZINC, said that in the past year, 70% of VR hardware startups have closed down. In 2014, there were more than 200 companies doing VR helmets in China, and only 60 were left in 2015. If you estimate this, the market elimination rate of the VR industry can reach nearly 70%. In addition, the Storm Mirror, which entered the VR industry earlier, also carried out mass layoffs in October this year. The company team has been reduced from 500 to 300. Although Storm Mirror indicates that this personnel change is a normal business adjustment, there are also some People can't help but doubt and worry about the future development of VR. The overall coldness of the industry has caused many investors to tighten their money bags. Once the capital chain breaks, a series of follow-up reactions to pay cuts, layoffs, and corporate failures will follow.

Then say technology. VR is attractive because it provides consumers with a deep, immersive offline experience. However, VR vertigo has become a barrier to VR devices. Many VR users say that after using VR products for a period of time, they will experience discomfort, nausea and even vomiting.

The reason for this bad user experience is that the delay of the VR hardware causes time synchronization, and when the person turns the angle of view or moves, the speed of the picture cannot keep up. In a full-view screen such as VR, such delays cause a sense of dizziness. Currently, the industry's solution to avoid dizziness is to find ways to reduce latency. This requires further improvement of VR hardware, but in the eyes of many people in the industry, it takes at least three years to solve this user experience problem perfectly. This means that in the future, the technical and experiential problems of VR hardware in the C-side will not be solved in a short period of time, and the cuts in the consumer side will be difficult to open. The VR industry that loses its consumption is more likely to become a rootless grass and a passive water. Then say the content. VR investment was concentrated on the hardware device side and content side in the early stage. From 2014 to 2015, the apparent hardware investment was more than the content investment. With the arrival of the capital winter, the investment situation of the whole industry can not be compared with the previous years. Together with the hardware development bottleneck caused by VR technology and the real dilemma of the entire industry chain, the interest of the capital market in hardware projects has begun to decrease significantly. . Investors are more focused on content and industry applications, and want to retain users, improve user retention, and seize user time.

Taking VR film and television as an example, film and television is a single-time high-frequency consumer product that can be quickly drained. A movie user usually only looks at it once and will not watch it. Unless it is a very classic movie, it is necessary for manufacturers to quickly generate new content. Continue to occupy user time. Another example is the VR game, where the game is a high-frequency continuous consumer product, but the stand-alone version of the game user will not play after playing for a while, and the online game can extend this time tens of times. However, the current domestic VR industry lacks uniform standards. Each VR company adopts different standards of measurement when making related products or content, which makes the quality of the products uneven. It is inevitable that consumers will have a bad experience in the use process. The decision to buy or experience again with the consumer. In addition, a VR content that will make the experience shine is really good VR content. At this stage, VR is still in the development stage. During this period, there is no deep penetration of hardware equipment and VR content, but how long this process will take, I am afraid no one can take a chest to give a positive answer.

In fact, the reason why the VR industry has today's embarrassing situation is that the overall background of the Internet industry is cold, and the longer term is the downturn of the real economy. In the words of columnist Xin Haiguang: The saying that Internet companies spend the winter is not the case this year. This is not a problem for one or two companies. The Internet economy is still built on the real economy. Behind the Internet recession is the downturn in the entire real economy. After the wave of national entrepreneurship and innovation, the industry leaders in multiple segments chose to merge, and the rest either disappeared silently on the Internet, or they resorted to the tree to seek refuge and became an accessory to large companies. In the 20 years of the brutal growth of the Internet in China, the Chinese Internet industry has been relying on playing free and low-priced cards. In recent years, Internet entrepreneurship has become popular, and even free of charge can not meet the needs of Internet companies to seize the market, so each The subsidy war is in full swing. After the introduction of a series of national regulatory measures, the vertical industry stopped barbaric growth and disorderly development. Some projects and even companies that want to make a profit during the blowout period have closed down. Food and beverage takeaways, travel, automobiles, beauty, tourism and education have become the hardest hit areas.

When the money subsidy is burned and the routines of the staking are not easy to use, the shuffling of the industry has also brought about the cold winter of the industry. In this way, the overall cold weather of the Internet industry today is also traceable. Although it says "Winter is coming, will spring be far behind?", but want to survive this winter, capital is the support, hardware is the spearhead, and the content is the two wings. The lack of one of these homework may slow down the whole. The rhythm of business. If you want to live this winter, you must do it and cherish it.

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