New energy vehicles subsidize the slope board, the car company's technical route has been tested

The new energy vehicle subsidy policy for slope retreat has become the sword of Damocles hanging over the top of all new energy manufacturing companies. Although this is a fact of life, the subsidy for new energy vehicles was accelerated in 2018 and the regulations were abruptly changed. The rumors still frustrated the participants in the auto manufacturing industry and the upstream and downstream industry chains.

At present, there is a draft outflow for new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018. According to a report on a subsidy program that was reported by the Economic Observer reporter, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be accelerated in 2018. The important point is that subsidies for products with a mileage of less than 150 kilometers for new energy vehicles will be zero. "(Disclosed several options) Although there are some differences, but the core content is the same: it is to subsidize the high energy density subsidies, in the final analysis, the new subsidy policy is a significant change in the battery energy density policy support, Only products with higher energy densities will enjoy high subsidy quotas, while the technical route of lithium iron phosphate (power battery) is difficult to achieve for high energy density, which means that the entire battery industry will be able to focus on ternary materials. Technical transformation.” A person in charge of a domestic power battery supplier analyzed the reporter.

The game of acceleration of the subsidy limit for new energy vehicles and changes in subsidies has given new energy auto companies different roles in different roles. If the subsidy policy is implemented, this change will "precisely" crack down on the production of small electric vehicles, while new energy vehicle companies that are "in earning subsidies and earn points" but have no technical content will be eliminated. Policies to encourage large-capacity electric vehicles in disguised form will also affect the development of new energy vehicle manufacturers and power battery suppliers, and even new energy vehicles.

“Subsidy retreat will affect sales volume of cars that accounted for more than 70% of sales, and such a large amount is just the most mainstream (new energy vehicle) in China, and it has once retreated to zero, disrupting the production rhythm of the company. The plan must be completely overturned, which is a very catastrophic change.(About the country's new energy vehicle subsidy policy) Every three years there is a break, there is no continuity of the policy, which makes the company hard to accept.” In Sanya Finance At the theme forum of the “Innovation Road of the Auto Industry under the New Consumption Ecology” in the international forum, Yin Chengliang, director of the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Innovation Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, expressed his opinions in a fierce but candid manner.

In this regard, Huang Yonghe, a senior expert at the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, disclosed that the relevant authorities are also considering introducing a tool kit supported by the new energy automobile policy and providing support for new energy vehicles in terms of taxation. For example, the purchase of new energy vehicles may receive a certain amount of income tax credit. Deductions and other policy support.

Subtle changes

According to the manuscript of the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy program that this reporter has learned, the program has divided the sub-individual targets of pure electric passenger vehicles, new energy passenger vehicles, new energy trucks and special vehicles into more detail. The cruising range was even more subtle, and the energy density requirements have also been further improved. It also proposed a subsidy for energy consumption.

Among them, the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles will be re-divided according to the driving range: the threshold for driving mileage is increased to 150 kilometers, that is, from the original 100-150 kilometers of 20,000 yuan subsidy will be canceled, 150-200 kilometers The subsidy will also be reduced from 36,000 to 20,000 yuan. At the same time, the sub-files were adjusted from the original 3 to 5 files, and the retreat scheme was continuously refined and more targeted. "The new subsidy policy is not like the past 'swallow' subsidy retreat, but according to the product's technology has risen and fall, the program may soon be announced, the most likely approach is to accelerate the subsidy on low-end products The subsidy rate may drop by more than 40%, but the amount of subsidy does not fall for products that meet the requirements for cruising range,” said a person in charge of a state-owned new energy vehicle state-owned enterprise.

Although the policy has not yet been introduced, the controversy has begun to change the details of the new subsidy policy. The new subsidy for new energy vehicles on the cruising range requirements means that the requirements for battery energy density have changed, and such policy adjustments will not only bring fluctuations to the market, but will even bring about the adjustment of new energy vehicle technology routes. .

Public statistics show that from January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's pure electric passenger vehicles was 300,000, of which, in terms of product structure, the cumulative sales volume of A00 pure electric vehicles in the first 10 months was 197,000, accounting for pure The overall sales of electric vehicles are 66%. If the new energy subsidy policy is implemented according to the draft plan disclosed above, the subsidy quota for national and local A00 pure electric vehicle products will be greatly reduced, and it is expected that the subsidy quota will be reduced by 50% compared with the current one.

There is no doubt that, as a key layout product of new energy automakers, A00 pure electric vehicles will suffer “concentration” in the new round of subsidy policies, but in fact these products are not technologically backward products. "If this is the case, the (terminal) price increase is an irreversible trend, in order to ensure sales, it is estimated that manufacturers will subsidize part of their own money or choose to make a small profit." Analysis of the automotive industry analyst Zhang Zhiqiang believes that such changes may need behind the company Pay the bill.

As for this set of subsidy policies, all parties in the industry reacted differently. Some traditional car companies believe that the acceleration of subsidy and the gradual refinement of subsidies are the performance of new energy vehicles in the market, and some new entrants to cross-boundary car manufacturers are concerned about the impact of this policy change on the progress of financing. “This is the equivalent of encouraging high-capacity electric vehicles in disguise, and Internet-based car manufacturers will benefit, but the short-distance travel with cities requires consumer demand for small-capacity electric vehicles. In addition, it is inevitable that there will be loopholes in the implementation of policies. Small-displacement electric Adding a plug-in battery to the car's trunk can increase it to 250 kilometers (cruising range), without changing the structure, and it can be rented to the user to use the card. Will there be car companies doing this?” Li Yanwei, member of the Expert Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association This raised his own questions.

deep influence

“Electric vehicle policies should not be changed overnight. This will disrupt the electric vehicle business plan and production rhythm. For example, such changes will prevent companies from installing batteries on existing models, including requirements for battery components. It has changed." Yin Chengliang expressed his worries.

Indeed, the adjustment of technological routes brought about by policy adjustments, as well as other industries such as upstream equipment, downstream batteries, and other peripheral suppliers, have a far-reaching impact, which has a huge impact on battery manufacturers.

Some analysts believe that the change in subsidy for new energy vehicles will cause new energy automakers to shift their cost pressure to power battery manufacturers with weaker bargaining power. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the price of power batteries has generally been reduced by more than 20%, but the pressure of rising raw material prices has not been reduced. In addition, power battery manufacturers must adjust battery specifications, PACK solutions, and even material formulations according to policy standards.

“From the perspective of power battery, the Guobu slope is the most stressful to the core component enterprises. Not only the upstream materials are rising, but the downstream terminal's payment will be relatively great pressure for us. We will start from the motor. To all aspects of the system to take measures to reduce the cost of the battery." In this regard, Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Zhong Mengguang, vice president at the Fourth China New Energy Vehicle Annual Meeting. However, another obvious problem is that the reduction of costs involves the coordination of the industrial chain, and this is obviously not what the power battery system and the vehicle manufacturer can do together.

From a macro point of view, the technical route of the entire new energy vehicle power battery market may be adjusted in depth due to changes in policy support. In all versions of the 2018 new energy subsidy policy that are currently circulating, the requirements for increasing the energy density of batteries are proposed. For example, in terms of battery energy density, there are two adjustments to the 2018 subsidy standard. One is to increase the subsidy threshold from 90Wh/kg to 95Wh/kg, and the other is to change the subsidy coefficient again. “The changes in subsidy policies for subsidy for new energy vehicles can also be regarded as another division of the power battery technology route and interest cake. The technical route of lithium iron phosphate batteries will decline, and ternary material battery technology will be favored. In addition, the increase in the energy density requirement of the battery will cause the battery's energy density to be about three times that of the current lithium battery.” said the person in charge of the supplier of the power battery.

In addition, this subsidy policy does not involve fuel cell vehicles, which is seen as a signal that the country strongly supports fuel cell technology. In this regard, the sense of smell of the capital market and car companies have been accelerating the layout of fuel cell technology and products.

In fact, this change in subsidy policy can be seen as a sign of new energy vehicles entering the post-subsidy era, and it also makes the policy level aware of the importance of setting up a long-term mechanism for new energy vehicles. Huang Yonghe disclosed that “the government is studying the establishment of a 'policy tool kit' that focuses on non-subsidy policies and establishing a policy system that will be completed in the post-subsidy era.”

Earlier, Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Development of the Ministry of Finance, also disclosed that the Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Energy Bureau, are establishing a set of fiscal and taxation policy systems for subsidies for new energy vehicles, subsidizing the combination of individual policies and policies. The policy system has been continuously improved.

It is reported that the topics related to the new energy policy toolkit have been formally launched. The three companies, China National Automobile Industry Association, China Automotive Engineering Society, and China Electric Vehicles Association, will jointly lead research. The study includes tax support policies, follow-up subsidy policy studies in 2020, traffic differentiation policies, charging infrastructure support policies and double-credit policies, and business model research.

Source: Economic Observer Liu Chunjing

Siren and Alarm

A siren is a loud noise-making device. Civil defense sirens are mounted in fixed locations and used to warn of natural disasters or attacks. Sirens are used on emergency service vehicles such as ambulances, police cars, and fire trucks. There are two general types: pneumatic and electronic.

Many fire sirens (used for calling the volunteer fire fighters) serve double duty as tornado or civil defense sirens, alerting an entire community of impending danger. Most fire sirens are either mounted on the roof of a fire station or on a pole next to the fire station. Fire sirens can also be mounted on or near government buildings, on tall structures such as water towers, as well as in systems where several sirens are distributed around a town for better sound coverage. Most fire sirens are single tone and mechanically driven by electric motors with a rotor attached to the shaft. Some newer sirens are electronically driven speakers.

Fire sirens are often called "fire whistles", "fire alarms", or "fire horns". Although there is no standard signaling of fire sirens, some utilize codes to inform firefighters of the location of the fire. Civil defense sirens also used as fire sirens often can produce an alternating "hi-lo" signal (similar to emergency vehicles in many European countries) as the fire signal, or a slow wail (typically 3x) as to not confuse the public with the standard civil defense signals of alert (steady tone) and attack (fast wavering tone). Fire sirens are often tested once a day at noon and are also called "noon sirens" or "noon whistles".

The first emergency vehicles relied on a bell. Then in the 70s, they switched to a duotone airhorn. Then in the 80s, that was overtaken by an electronic wail.

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