Industry standards tend to perfect the inflection point of the photovoltaic industry?

As 2017 comes to a close, the achievements of China's photovoltaic industry will not go unnoticed by the global community. In the final month of the year, we look ahead to the development prospects for the photovoltaic market in 2018. I still remember that early this year, after the massive surge in 2016, the industry was filled with uncertainty. Many expected 2017 to be a difficult year, unable to match the momentum of 2016. However, in reality, 2017 saw the photovoltaic industry achieve another leap forward, with even more impressive results than the previous year. Will 2018 continue to be a hot year for the industry after consecutive breakthroughs? With the pressure of declining subsidies and cheaper grid access, will 2018 bring challenges or an adjustment phase for the sector?  **Subsidy Cuts and Falling Component Prices** According to the National Development and Reform Commission’s notice on adjusting the on-grid price of land-based wind power and photovoltaic benchmark prices, the photovoltaic power price will be adjusted annually based on cost changes. Therefore, the 2018 photovoltaic on-grid price is expected to decline again. The key concern is how much the subsidy reduction will impact the industry. According to forecasts, the next cut in the PV benchmark price could range from 0.15 to 0.2 yuan. Unlike previous years, the probability of distributed PV subsidies remaining unchanged for four years is lower in 2018. This means that full subsidy reductions are likely, forcing the industry to further reduce generation costs. **Reducing Costs: A Heavy Responsibility on Components** To reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation, the focus must fall on components. While inverters have some room for price drops, other parts like brackets, electrical equipment, and cables remain rigid. Therefore, the burden of cost reduction still rests on the component side. As subsidies decrease, PV module prices are expected to fall further. This will depend largely on process optimization and battery efficiency improvements. Diamond wire cutting and PERC technology are already gaining traction, and new high-efficiency technologies like N-type double-sided cells are on the horizon. Overall, subsidy cuts are expected to drive down component prices significantly. **Subsidy Arrears: A Persistent Challenge** The photovoltaic industry has long investment cycles, making financial flow critical. However, subsidy arrears have placed additional pressure on companies, leading to high debt ratios. Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Institute, pointed out that as wind and solar installations grow rapidly, the gap in new energy subsidies has widened dramatically. By 2016, the subsidy gap had turned from a surplus of 15 billion yuan in 2012 into a deficit of about 70 billion yuan. In 2017, the rapid increase in PV installations added nearly 30 billion yuan in subsidies. **Green Card Trading and Distributed Power Sales: New Hope** One promising solution is the green electricity certificate trading policy. Launched in July 2017, this initiative allows wind and solar companies to sell certificates to buyers at a price not exceeding the corresponding power value. If implemented in 2018, this system could ease the pressure on subsidies. Additionally, the "wall-to-wall power sales" model for distributed PV projects is expected to improve cash flow for companies struggling with subsidy arrears. This model enables users to access the grid at parity, providing stable income and improving capital operations. **Reduced Non-PV Costs and Improved Standards** While the industry moves closer to grid parity, non-PV costs such as land and taxes remain high. However, recent policies aim to address this. The National Energy Administration issued a notice in September 2017 to reduce taxes and fees for renewable energy enterprises, including VAT rebates and free land acquisition tax. These measures, along with relaxed land use regulations for poverty alleviation projects, are expected to significantly lower non-PV costs. **Standardization and Industry Maturity** With rapid growth, the need for industry standards has become urgent. The National Energy Administration, together with other agencies, has released guidelines to enhance technical specifications and strengthen supervision. By 2020, China aims to establish a comprehensive standard system that meets industry needs. In 2018, eight new photovoltaic standards will be implemented, addressing the immediate lack of industry benchmarks. **Industry Shuffling and Competitive Challenges** Despite favorable policies, competition is intensifying. Upstream companies face challenges as single-crystal silicon gains dominance over polycrystalline. Companies unable to adopt diamond wire cutting technology may struggle to survive. Similarly, component manufacturers must shift toward high-efficiency products like PERC and dual-side modules. Downstream investors will also see a shift in focus toward central and eastern China, where land costs are higher and rooftop resources are limited. **Summary** In conclusion, despite subsidy cuts, the industry is becoming more efficient, and non-PV costs are expected to decline. This should minimize the negative impact of subsidy reductions. With improved standards and market maturity, distributed PV is expected to grow rapidly in 2018, potentially accounting for over 50% of new installations. The photovoltaic industry may not reach a turning point immediately, but it is set for continued growth.

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