Industry standards tend to perfect the inflection point of the photovoltaic industry?

As 2017 draws to a close, the achievements of China’s photovoltaic industry are being recognized globally. As we approach the final month of the year, many are looking ahead to the development prospects of the photovoltaic market in 2018. Earlier this year, after the surge in 2016, the industry faced a challenging period, with many expecting a slowdown in growth. However, 2017 turned out to be another year of remarkable progress, with even more impressive results than the previous one. The question now is: will 2018 continue this momentum, or will it mark a turning point as subsidies decrease and costs rise? The photovoltaic industry is under pressure due to declining subsidies and the need for cheaper energy access. In response, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that on-grid prices for solar power would be adjusted annually based on cost changes. This means that 2018 will likely see another round of price cuts. Analysts predict that the reduction could range from 0.15 to 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour. More importantly, the distributed PV subsidy, which had remained unchanged for four years, may also face reductions in 2018, signaling a full phase-out of subsidies. To cope with these changes, the industry must focus on reducing overall system costs. While components like inverters and electrical equipment have limited room for price cuts, the main burden falls on PV modules. Advances in production processes, such as diamond wire cutting, and improvements in battery efficiency—like PERC and N-type double-sided cells—are helping to drive down module prices. These innovations suggest that the industry is well-prepared for the shift away from subsidies. Another pressing issue is the growing problem of subsidy arrears. With long investment cycles, many PV companies face financial strain. The gap between new energy subsidies and actual funding has widened significantly over the years. To address this, the government is exploring alternative solutions, such as green electricity certificate trading. This policy allows renewable energy producers to sell certificates, providing an additional revenue stream and easing financial pressure. Additionally, the "wall-to-wall power sales" model for distributed PV is expected to improve cash flow for companies struggling with delayed payments. Non-PV costs, including land and taxes, remain high but are expected to decrease with new policies. For instance, tax rebates and relaxed land regulations are being introduced to reduce the burden on the industry. Furthermore, the establishment of comprehensive industry standards by 2020 aims to ensure quality and consistency across the sector. Despite these challenges, the industry is evolving rapidly. Companies are facing intense competition, leading to a wave of consolidation. Those unable to adapt to higher efficiency requirements may struggle to survive. The shift toward single-crystal silicon and high-efficiency components is reshaping the market, while distributed PV continues to gain traction. In summary, although subsidies are decreasing, the industry is becoming more efficient and cost-effective. With new policies and standards in place, the photovoltaic market is expected to maintain steady growth in 2018. The industry may not reach a turning point immediately, but its future looks promising.

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