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As can be seen from the revenue and gross profit spin-off of Tongfang Guoxin, the main profitability of the reorganized Tongfang Guoxin has been transferred to the chip business, of which the non-telecom smart card chip business is particularly eye-catching, although it only accounts for 34% of the main business income, but It contributed 72% of gross profit.
We conservatively predict that the company's 2012-2014 EPS will be 0.576 yuan, 0.724 yuan, and 1.00 yuan; the company will be given a target price of 25.34 yuan in the next 6 months.
Chip gross margin is nearly 50%
In 2011, the People's Bank of China issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Application of Financial IC Cards" and the "Notice on Selecting Certain Cities to Develop the Application of Financial IC Cards in the Public Service Field". It is planned that all commercial banks nationwide should start issuing from 2013 Financial IC cards. Since 2015, bank cards issued by commercial banks in economically developed regions and key cooperative industries with RMB as their settlement accounts shall all be financial IC cards.
Due to the lack of safety and reliability standards, the current financial IC card chips purchased by banks basically only use imported chips. Due to financial security and the high cost of using imported financial IC card chips, the central government made it clear that bank IC cards issued in China will adopt chips from domestic manufacturers in the future.
Due to the lack of safety and reliability standards for domestic chips, this has largely delayed the domestic EMV in the past two years (Editor's note: the chip card specifications jointly developed by the three major international bank card organizations, Europay, MasterCard and VISA, are chip cards and chips Interactive dialogue mechanism between terminals) the pace of migration.
At present, domestic chip manufacturers represented by Tongfang Microelectronics have actively deployed financial IC card product lines, and domestic chip technology is becoming more and more perfect. Passing the certification of domestic safety and reliability standards will be the last hurdle to be crossed for large-scale promotion of domestic chips.
The Bank Card Testing Center began to officially provide financial IC card integrated circuit security testing services in February 2012. Zhang Zhibo, head of the China UnionPay Technical Management Department, said that he will complete the certification of financial IC cards in advance by the end of this year, and establish an IC in line with international standards in early 2013 The card's overall safety testing and certification system.
We believe that with the completion of safety certification, the biggest obstacle to domestic EMV migration will be lifted. We expect domestic EMV migration and the localization of financial IC card chips to be fully launched in 2013.
Under the acceleration of domestic EMV migration in 2013 and the localization of financial IC card chips, domestic smart card chip leaders are the biggest beneficiaries; for the understanding of the degree of benefit, we can refer to the development path of second-generation ID cards.
In 2004, the domestic second-generation resident ID card replacement work began. For the sake of information security, the national second-generation ID card chip (contactless IC card chip) required all domestic products, and the country cultivated Tongfang Microelectronics. , Datang Microelectronics, Shanghai Huahong and CLP Huada completed the chip development of the second-generation card. In the next eight years, the Ministry of Public Security only purchased second-generation ID chips from these four manufacturers involved in the development of second-generation ID chips. The purchase price was stable and the gross profit margin exceeded 50%.
It is worth mentioning that, since 2008, the gross profit margin of Tongfang Microelectronics' second-generation chip has not declined, but has increased with the reduction of costs.
At present, the major domestic R & D enterprises of financial IC card chips (contactless / dual interface) are only Tongfang Microelectronics, Datang Microelectronics, CLP Huada, Fudan (Weibo) Microelectronics and National Technology; the company's products are leading in China The status has passed the PB2.0 certification of the central bank. At present, the financial IC card has been submitted for reliable security certification. It is one of the most promising companies to be approved first.
We believe that the future development path of copying the second-generation ID card in the financial IC card chip market is a high probability event. We expect the price of the future financial IC card chip to be around 6 yuan to 8 yuan. We refer to the second-generation ID card chip. It is expected that the domestic IC financial card chip The gross profit margin is about 50%, and the net profit margin is about 40%; the company is expected to occupy 20% of the financial IC card chip market in the future.
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