Components: Smart Phone Golden Termination

Trend 1: The lackluster growth of smart phones has begun to appear. According to IDC data, smartphone shipments in the first quarter of this year surpassed that of the feature machine, golden cross came first, and in July vendors began destocking, NAND prices that have continued to rise since the beginning of this year began to loosen, and touch screen prices also began to decrease, from August to September. It is time to observe the window, with the launch of the cheap version of the iPhone, as well as the arrival of the school season and the 11th holiday, the shipment of smart phones is expected to continue to maintain high growth, otherwise the golden period of smart phones will end.

Trend 2: convergence trends. As the mobile phone screen becomes bigger and bigger, the tablet PC becomes smaller and smaller, and the integration trend of smart phone and tablet PC becomes more and more obvious. Generally speaking, this is not good news for the electronic component industrial chain, and integration represents the smart terminal market. If the overall demand is reduced, if the notebook also joins the wave of integration, the overall terminal demand will further shrink, and then only the truly core competitiveness of the company can survive in the industry chain.

Trend 3: The low-end mobile phones have become protagonists, and domestic mobile phones have risen. IDC and other agencies released smartphone Q2 shipment data. Although the data is different, the trend is consistent: S4/iPhone5 represents a decline in the growth rate of high-end model shipments, rapid growth of low-end models, domestic mobile phones Rising, Samsung is less affected by adopting the sea tactics, Apple will launch a cheap version of the iPhone in order to curb the trend of declining market share, while the original second-tier manufacturers such as Lenovo and Huawei have entered the high-end market in order to obtain profits. In the domestic mobile phone industry chain, Lenovo's Lenovo mobile phone foundry Zhuo Yi Technology, Huawei's Battery supplier Xin Wang Da is still worthy of attention.

The touch screen industry is turning around. In the active expansion of various manufacturers, smartphone penetration rate exceeds 50%, and the background of PC decline, the signs of overcapacity in the touch screen industry have already begun to appear, prices began to decline, with the large-scale release of OGS production capacity of TPK, Shenghua and other large manufacturers , AUO, BOE, Shenzhen Tianma and other panel plant touch screen production capacity, the supply of touch screen increased significantly, if the touch screen notebook penetration continues to be lower than expected, the industry turning point will come.

Wearable smart devices lead the trend of the times. Google shares stakeholder subsidiary Li Jing Optoelectronics, enhances control of core components LCOS chips, and opens source code of its core software, intended to build an ecosystem, Apple applied for smart watch patents all over the world, other manufacturers Including Sony and Shanda, one after another, products will be released. ABI Research estimates that global smart watch shipments are expected to exceed 1.2 million units this year. IMS Research expects smart glasses shipments to reach 6.6 million units by 2016. Device suppliers such as Crystal Optoelectronics (Micro Projector), Danbang Technology (Softboard), Huanxu Electronics (Wifi Module), and Goerre Acoustics (Voice Control Devices) may benefit from this.

The prosperity of the semiconductor industry has steadily rebounded. In June, the North American semiconductor equipment BB value was 1.1, the industry boomed steadily, order volume rose 0.7% qoq, and shipments fell 1.4% qoq; Japan's semiconductor equipment BB rose to 1.4, order volume fell 6.8% qoq, shipping Volume fell 22.2%. With the arrival of the peak sales season, TSMC’s production capacity has become tight. However, due to the fact that the second quarter operating base has been increased, WiFi demand has weakened, and Qualcomm’s sales of Samsung’s Galaxy S4 have been less than expected in order to gradually reduce TSMC’s sales, the current market forecast The combined revenue in the third quarter was approximately 4-9% higher than the previous quarter. The quarterly increase was slightly lower than the previous quarter's performance. IDC expects the semiconductor industry to recover moderately. Global semiconductor revenue this year grew by 6.9% to US$320 billion. In 2014, semiconductor revenue grew 2.9% from 2013 to US$329 billion, and in 2017 it will reach US$366 billion.

In June, the panel industry saw a significant drop in shipments. The prosperity of the panel industry in the third quarter is expected to decline. In June, shipments of TV panels decreased by 5.3% month-on-month, and shipments of notebook panels rose by 0.4% month-on-month. Display panel shipments fell by 6.9% from the previous quarter, driving the LCD panel industry's overall revenue to decline 5.4% from the previous quarter. In July, the price of mobile phone panels was significantly reduced. The prices of 1.8-inch, 2-inch, and 2.2-inch mobile phone panels fell by 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.9%, respectively. The TV panels also saw a slight decrease, 39-inch, 40-42 inch, and 46. The prices of inch TV panels dropped by 1.5%, 1.5%, and 1.2% respectively. The negative effects of canceling subsidies for energy-saving appliances began to show. In the third quarter, the oversupply of TV panels will continue. However, with the influence of mobile phone panels on the stocks of brand companies, the pressure on shipments will gradually increase, and the prosperity of the panel industry will face downward risks.

In June, the decline in LED revenue at Taiwan's plant will not change LED's rising trend. After experiencing high innovation revenue from LED manufacturers in May, due to the slowing down of backlight application growth in June, Taiwan’s LED manufacturer’s revenue declined slightly, but we believe that the start of indoor lighting in the second half will drive Taiwan’s revenue to return. Growth path; LED bulb prices in various regions in June basically showed a downward trend, replacing 40W and 60W LED bulbs fell 2.7% and 1.6%, respectively, with the regional market demand gradually warming and consumer awareness, Philip, Osram, etc. The international first-line brands have launched high-cost products to grab the market. Under the impetus of the international giants, the price competition in the LED lighting market has gone from the sacrificing of product quality to reducing the vicious stage of cost. It is expected to enter into a virtuous circle that truly depends on product price-performance competition. In the second half of the year, the shipments of LED lamps will grow rapidly, and lighting applications will become the main driving force for the growth of the industry in the second half of the year. We still recommend Benson Optoelectronics and Chau Ming Technology, which benefit from street lighting, Sunshine Lighting with channel advantages, and BDO Runda, which combines the advantages of channel and industry chain.

It is recommended to configure the semiconductor and LED panels. In July, the BB value of North American semiconductor equipment reached 1.1, and the industry's prosperity rate rose steadily. IDC expects global semiconductor revenue to grow by 6.9% this year to US$320 billion; smart phone manufacturers will enter the destocking stage, and August-October will be the observation window. Lower than expected, the golden era of smart phones will end here; LED Taiwan plant revenue decline, but does not change the trend of LED boom. It is recommended to configure semiconductor blocks: Hua Microelectronics, Tongfu Microelectronics, Changjiang Electronics Technology, Suzhou Guxi, Dongguang Microelectronics; LED lighting companies: Qinshang Optoelectronics, Chau Ming Technology (Street Lights), Sunshine Lighting (channels), Dehao Runda (Industry Chain Integration).